(Hopefully Mama won’t get too bummed out by this; it’s intended as humorous as is possible on this little sleep…)
If Siena is up at some point during the night 2 out of every 3 nights, and that’s about how she’s going presently, let’s say that there’s an 2/3 chance she’ll wake us up any given night. Thalia’s been doing a little better, and is up only one third of nights.
Assuming that if they don’t wake up during the night that means we get a good (enough) night’s sleep, then the probability that we get a good night’s sleep is the probability neither of them wakes up, which is (1-2/3) * (1-1/3) = 22.22% which is just over 1/5. So basically on average we get one full night of sleep every five days.
Oh wait, I forgot to throw in the nights that Nalia gets up at 4 or 5 to go out. That’s been happening every few days, let’s call it 40% of nights. That brings our “everyone sleeps through the night” probability to (1-2/3)*(1-1/3)*(1-.4) = 13.33% or right around 1/7. We are getting a full night of sleep once a week. Never mind that Tenzing and Penny are always ready and roaring (mewing) at 6.
Hence Nonna’s first thing she said to me when she saw me yesterday while visiting for her birthday: “You look exhausted.”
Thalia being up we can understand. She’s getting teeth, she’s still only 7 months. Nalia is annoying but understandable: She’s sick. Siena’s nighttime restlessness is what we need to get stopped. Right now she’s just about the worst offender, too. If we can get her down to 1/3 and I can force myself to walk Nalia every night around 11 or 12 and get her down to 20%, then we can get ourselves up to 2.5 full nights a week (well, 5 every 14 days).
Hey it’s not great, but it’s a start.
P.S. Of course my numbers might be slightly exaggerated since both girls were up around 4 AM this morning, and I’ve been up since then.